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tale two metaverses

The Metaverse’s history shows we’re not quite ready for it

  • min read
    • In October 2021, Facebook Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg changed his company's brand name to Meta to reflect what he sees as the importance of the metaverse to their business strategy. Experienced using a virtual reality (VR) headset, the three-dimensional virtual environment lets characters (called avatars) engage in social and commercial activities much like real life. Many global business giants see the Metaverse as a huge commercial opportunity that will change how we live and work. Should your business get involved? I believe the Metaverse's history shows while it's an environment you should get familiar with, it may not be the time to invest big. Here's why. Origins of the Metaverse The video games industry has long driven demand for engaging immersive experiences and technologies to deliver them. Content expert Amica Graber says the word 'Metaverse' first appears in Neal Stephenson's 1992 science fiction novel Snow Crash. Snow Crash's imaginary Metaverse is a massively multiplayer online game (MMOG) – a game where all players are logged into the same game space, competing or collaborating on missions. MMOGs have been around since the 1990s. Their popularity has risen fast worldwide with improved internet connectivity, computer power and immersive graphics. One such game, space simulator EVE Online, has seen over 60,000 players simultaneously playing. And like in the Metaverse, trading virtual items for real-world money in MMOGs has become big business. What's the Metaverse's attraction? The Metaverse has business potential because of our willingness to invest so much time and money in playing games online. In a 2022 virtual conference on the Metaverse, Datin Lorela Chia, CEO of Haus of Stylo, Malaysia, gave examples of the fashion and games industry collaborating, like creating and selling virtual garments for avatars. But it's not just about buying and selling things – the Metaverse offers a way to meet, discuss or learn that's more immersive than other online communication tools. Bill Gates said in 2021, "Within two to three years, I predict most virtual meetings will move from 2D camera image grids… to the Metaverse – a 3D space with digital avatars." Metaverse follows in Second Life's footsteps In almost every way except the VR headsets, there was a Metaverse from 2003, when Linden Labs launched virtual world Second Life. Second Life is a virtual world that lets users create avatars and settings, and teleport from one place to another in seconds. Second Life has an estimated 800,000 users and many of the characteristics of a real-world civilization – rules, citizen rights, homes, shops, universities and events. It has many business applications like hybrid conferences, virtual project meetings and data visualization for education and collaboration. IBM has used Second Life for internal meetings. BP for graduate recruitment and Imperial College London for virtual hospital tours. But with all its functionality and experience, Second Life hasn't gained mainstream commercial success. So why does Mark Zuckerberg believe his Metaverse has massive disruptive potential? What's enabling today's Metaverse? The answer lies in how the internet evolved since its birth in 1983. The power of 5G and fibre, smartphones and social media have all played a role. Today's advanced internet technologies make the Metaverse possible, but the devices and applications we use daily will determine whether it has significant commercial potential. Second Life runs on a desktop computer and connects to a network of Linden Lab servers. It's a security risk for businesses with network firewalls. Second Life is also 'synchronous:' users only get value from being online at the same time as other users. So there are no users in most Second Life locations most of the time. To use a real-world retail analogy, there's a lack of footfall. This is also true for the Metaverse. Its commercial potential will depend on user numbers and where they spend time. It's critical there's on-demand universal access across computers, laptops and mobile devices. Perhaps 'Web 3.0' will be the technology that delivers on making Metaverse experiences securely accessible to a global marketplace across different devices, but especially mobile devices like smartphones. What is Web 3.0 and why does it matter? IT industry analyst Robin Bloor recently said, "Web 3.0 is the third generation of the internet — a global network that permits intelligent interactions between all its users and devices." Web 3.0 is a theoretical new blockchain-based iteration of the web. It could provide increased data security, scalability and privacy for users. It would let users publish rich media content to a global audience and make a Metaverse more commercially viable than Second Life. By making the web more powerful, intuitive and secure, Web 3.0 could mean the volume of online users accessing and creating content grows faster. One major difference, most relevant to the Metaverse, is better handling of the 3D graphics needed for virtual worlds. Blockchain important to Metaverse commerce Metaverse settings are computer-generated environments or 360-degree photos and videos captured by consumer or professional cameras. These digital images and videos are now traded on the internet. Blockchain can validate ownership of these digital assets, enabling the fashion industry to sell digital garments. In Second Life from 2005, you could create digital assets and trade them for the digital currency Linden dollars. Today, the same thing is happening in the Metaverse using blockchain and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. These latest developments, alongside artificial intelligence that connects buyers with sellers, will add to the growth of the Metaverse. How will the Metaverse affect business? The future shape and commercial potential of the Metaverse go beyond numbers of users. It also depends on how often they visit, for how long, where and why. With pandemics and climate change restricting face-to-face contact and travel, applications that enable remote communication and collaboration have grown fast. Online meeting app Zoom saw daily meeting participants grow from 10 million to 300 million between 2019 and 2020, mostly from small business and personal use. Will the Metaverse become the new virtual meeting space Bill Gates predicted? It seems unlikely for now, with the convenience and ease of use of Zoom and other online meeting platforms. More likely, the commercial potential of the Metaverse will be unlocked by applications that benefit more from immersive experiences. It could also be useful in mental and physical health therapies that use virtual reality and for complex 3D data visualization. Facebook (Meta) has invested hugely in strategy based on VR headsets as the gateway to their Metaverse platform. Unlike the browsers found on every smartphone and laptop, few own or have access to a VR headset. At the moment, Metaverse suffers from the same problem that restricted Second Life – a limited marketplace, until the technology evolves to the point where VR headsets or glasses are affordable and ubiquitous. Unlike recent disruptions like cryptocurrency, the Metaverse relies on mass adoption to be profitable for business. Several factors in the market today make mass Metaverse adoption unlikely, like low VR headset ownership and lack of systems to access the Metaverse with commonly owned devices. While businesses should closely follow the Metaverse's development, it may be premature to invest heavily at this time. In any case, watch this space.
ar vr cybersecurity

Does virtual and augmented reality mean augmented cybercrime too?

  • min read
    • Not so long ago, augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) were the stuff of science fiction. Now they've become more than just niche experimental technologies. They're rapidly entering the mainstream, particularly in the consumer world of interactive media. But it's not just things like video games that are being transformed by the rise of VR platforms – there are some promising business cases for AR and VR too. In fact, some experts estimate that they will become indispensable technologies in the business world by as early as 2025. What is augmented and virtual reality? Although augmented and virtual reality are closely related, they're not the same thing. AR 'augments' the real world around the user by adding digital elements to the real-world view. Perhaps the most familiar example is the mobile game Pokémon Go, as well as less successful products like the infamous Google Glass. VR, by contrast, provides a far more immersive experience, since it relies on shutting out the physical world entirely. Popular VR devices include gaming platforms like HTC Vive and Oculus Rift, as well as lower-tech and more affordable experiences like those offered by Google Cardboard. Another term you'll encounter is mixed reality (MR), which refers to experiences that combine elements of both VR and AR. One of the best-known examples is Microsoft HoloLens, an MR platform designed specifically for business applications. What are the business applications of augmented and virtual reality? Rapid prototyping One of the most promising applications is product prototyping, a process which involves creating a complete digital model of a product (or, a so-called digital twin) and merging it with a VR experience. This allows for extensive testing and ideation without the high costs of developing multiple physical prototypes. Employee training Another popular business application, and one that's already entering mainstream use, is employee training. By applying VR or AR to training programs, it's possible to build a safe and highly interactive simulated environment with real-time feedback. Similarly, AR and VR can help improve workplace safety, especially in hazardous environments, be they workshop floors or nuclear reactors. AR can also help workers assemble, operate and maintain complex machines by providing real-time information overlaid onto their headsets. These are just a few of the exciting applications of augmented and virtual reality. And, though they might still sound like science fiction to the layperson, they're actually not. Companies like Ford, Airbus and Sotheby's are already using them. The wearable camera problem Augmented reality headsets depend on their abilities to understand the local environment, which means cameras are often essential components and they can pose a security risk. Ever since the first Google Glass prototype was released to much fanfare back in 2013 (only to fail miserably by 2015), there have been growing concerns around privacy and security. The launch of Google Glass even gave rise to the colorful term 'glasshole', which refers to those people who behaved inappropriately while using the device (such as by spying on others and taking photos without their knowledge). But edgy names aside, this has serious implications in fields such as healthcare where organizations are subject to strict compliance regulations like HIPAA to protect patient privacy. A new frontier for social engineering Aside from privacy concerns, AR and VR devices are connected like any other. They're part of a rapidly growing global network that's often dubbed the Internet of Things (IoT). And, like any connected device, they handle the transmission and storage of data, which might be misappropriated by hackers. When it comes to the immersive experiences of AR and VR, this has especially worrying potential in corporate espionage and social engineering. When technology can reach the point of convincing the brain it's somewhere where it's not, the opportunities for taking advantage of human vulnerabilities are enormous. As with any technology, the weakest link is normally the users themselves, which makes AR and VR a unique target for exploiting people. For example, attackers might inject features into VR platforms designed to mislead users into giving away personal information. There are also new implications for ransomware, in which attackers could sabotage platforms and interrupt important meetings before asking for a ransom. VR and AR experiences are only going to get more immersive and more realistic. On the one hand, this might make them more engaging and widely used. On the other, it makes them more dangerous. Fake identities, or so-called 'deepfakes' generated by machine-learning technologies, for example, allow for the manipulation of voices and videos to the extent they still look like genuine footage. If a hacker could access the motion-tracking data from a VR headset, they could potentially use it to create a digital replica. They could then superimpose this on someone else's VR experience, such as an immersive business conference, to carry out a social engineering attack. With people interacting more and more through avatars, this brings an entirely new dimension to the disturbing world of cybercrime. Data breach risks Aside from potentially providing cybercriminals with new ways to manipulate their victims, VR and AR present all the classic cybersecurity risks too. As systems that transmit and store data, they're fair game for anyone wanting to get their hands on the most valuable commodity in the world: personal data. They're also possible targets for denial of service attacks (DDos), which could have very serious implications for those depending on AR in critical situations such as surgical procedures or when operating dangerous machinery. Mitigating the risks isn't as hard as you think To address the risks associated with AR and VR, it's best to start with the core principles of information security – the very same ones that should be governing the wider IT infrastructure across the organization. Although attacks against AR and VR systems manifest themselves in different ways, the technological and administrative measures used to safeguard them are similar to other forms of connected technology. They use the same protocols as any other connected device, so all the standard rules apply – include them in your risk assessments, keep firmware up to date and encrypt any sensitive data. And never take security for granted. Most AR and VR devices don't encrypt data by default, and they may integrate with third-party apps which themselves have dubious security. On top of all the standard measures, AR and VR present some unique challenges, particularly when it comes to physical security and safety. One of the biggest problems with VR specifically is that it completely blocks off a user's visual and auditory connection to the outside world. It's always important to evaluate the physical safety and security of the user's environment first. This also applies to AR, in which it's important for users to maintain a high degree of situational awareness, particularly in more immersive environments. And, it should go without saying, but don't run around in a busy workspace wearing a VR headset! Although identity and access management are central to any information security strategy and concern any device, this is an area that's often overlooked when it comes to the adoption of AR and VR systems. You might, for example, be able to identify other people you're working with by their avatars, but there's also the potential risk of the avatar being copied and used by an unauthorized party. Fortunately, used in the right way, AR and VR can potentially improve identity and access management with multifactor authentication (MFA) – for example using eye-tracking sensors to verify your identity before you can access the rest of the system. While the challenges are undeniable, so is the potential of adopting augmented and virtual reality into the workplace.
path dependence business innovation

How business can innovate better by escaping ‘path dependence’

  • min read
    • It's an elaborate story how railway track spacing (and so, the space shuttle rocket boosters) ended up 4 feet 8 1⁄2 inches or 1.44 meters: Mind-bogglingly, the measurement goes back to the width of carriage wheels when pulled by two horses. And unlike many similar stories, it seems more fact than fiction. Data engineer and Associate Professor of English at University of Michigan, Tung-Hui Hu, points out this phenomenon – new infrastructure tending to follow the path of older infrastructure when its relevance is long past – in recent Tomorrow Unlocked audio series Fast Forward. The phenomenon is called path dependence or path tendency. He studied it in writing his book, A Prehistory of the Cloud. Hu says in Fast Forward, "I first noticed the tracks of the Southern Pacific Railroad were where they ran fiber optic cable. It made me wonder what precursors to the Cloud – what older networks – might exist. The highway system in Chicago, for instance, is built on top of old Native American trails. We have the same choke points, in terms of traffic, as we did 100 years ago. It's hard to run a cable through a mountain. We tend to land cables in the same places as they did in the 19th century." Every tech business today wants to be a disruptive innovator like Uber or AirBnB – inventing products that don't just improve what's already there, but fundamentally change how a market operates. Examining how your business is 'path dependent' – or follows practices no longer relevant or necessary – could open the door to disruptive ideas. What keyboards say about path dependence in tech The pattern of keys on the standard laptop, computer and even smartphone is a classic example of path dependence. The layout is called QWERTY after the first six letters on the top line of the English-language keyboard. But why are the letters in this strange order? QWERTY keyboard layouts were designed for the earliest typewriters in the 1870s to address a common problem: Mechanical letter levers close to each other would collide and jam. Many have tried to design alternatives to QWERTY that could be faster to learn and use. The Dvorak keyboard layout puts the most often used letters on the home keys, but whether it's faster, research is unclear. Dvorak, invented in the 1930s, didn't intend to 'disrupt' typing but make it faster and easier. Today, we see features like voice recognition disrupting writing itself, and with AI widely used to predict what people will want next, we may need to communicate our needs less in future. How do organizations stay nimble, notice and adapt to emerging trends, or even get ahead of them? No business wants to be the next Borders, Blockbuster or Polaroid, but it's not always clear how what patterns we have or how to break out of them. Research in the field of path dependence offers insight. Using self-reinforcing mechanisms as a way to change In the journal Business Research in 2020, Johann Fortwengel and Arne Keller ask, how can locked-in organizations regain their scope for maneuver? Past research suggests organizations usually escape path dependence thanks to external 'shocks,' like tough competition entering their market or the price of certain materials becoming uneconomic. But Fortwengel and Keller found "some organizations succeed in escaping from path dependence against all odds." Where organizations took time to understand how they were path dependent, and interrupt the ways the path reinforced itself (for example, in staff onboarding,) businesses could undo old paths and build new ones. One organization Fortwengel and Arne studied, 150-year-old German camera makers CameraCorp, had been a roaring success in the 20th century. "Employees gradually followed the informal principle to treat optical excellence and mechanical accuracy as the fundamental basis for decision-making, and adopted it as the ultimate priority in every aspect of their daily work." When in the mid-90s the Head of Electronics wanted to introduce new electrical features to the lens, he encountered much resistance because the solution was neither optical nor mechanical. The company became 'tapered' in its audience appeal, catering increasingly to the needs of the camera elite and ignoring wider market trends. When the digital photographic revolution hit in the late 90s, CameraCorp realized they couldn't go on building their business purely on past strengths. They established a structurally separate research-based digital imaging group. Although the group made several breakthroughs, staff in the wider organization didn't embrace the promise of change. CameraCorp could then make bold leaps to become a market leader in digital camera tech, whereas several big players in the camera and film market didn't adapt fast enough to survive the industry's digital transformation. Fortwengel and Keller stress the need to understand how paths are reinforcing themselves. "Self-reinforcing mechanisms play a complex role in path dependence. On the one hand, they are the key driver of path dependence, on the other hand, paradoxically, they offer a possible lever to escape path dependence." Making knowledge less sticky In the Oxford University Press-published Strategic Management: State of the Field and Its Future, researchers Henk Volberda, Tatjana Schneidmuller and Taghi Zadeh point to the role of managerial knowledge and strategy in escaping path dependence and achieving innovation. "Knowledge stickiness" describes the tendency of organizations – even within research and development – to rely on existing knowledge rather than seeking new. The three researchers propose triggers for organizations breaking out of their knowledge cycle: Diverse audiences, regulation and regulators, internal strategic misalignment and the strategist's role. Many would understand more diverse audiences can trigger organizations to change, but regulation is often assumed to harm innovation. The researchers argue history shows regulation often spurs innovation, so organizations might consider 'leaning in' to regulation, considering it an opportunity rather than a pain in the neck. They also propose innovation benefits when different parts of an organization are pulling in different directions. "Organizations can thrive by embracing misalignment between internal components and promoting inconsistent mentalities and structures." Misalignment could make organizations more flexible and adaptive. "Firms that can embrace misalignment can steer a path through their technological developments when they do not have a clear view of what the future might hold. They can accommodate differing views of the future among their managers." CameraCorp's story shows how businesses that become too focused on narrow goals become path dependent. It follows that being strategically diverse, or in other words a bit scattered, could be an advantage. All businesses want to innovate, but success is often followed by getting stuck on the same path that led you there. Studies in path dependence give insight on how organizations get stuck and how they can free themselves. When organizations fall victim to their own success, breaking patterns means undoing before building new. How will you start to break down your business's path dependence, allowing disruptive ideas into the light?
emotional intelligence ai

To recruit diverse talent, we need emotionally intelligent AI. But how?

  • min read
    • Recruiting stand-out, creative talent poses a challenge. In the wake of the pandemic, we need creativity more than ever. The Harvard Business Review says, "Imagination may seem like a frivolous luxury in a crisis, but it is actually a necessity for building future success. Now is not the time for only executing a practiced recipe." Artificial Intelligence (AI) designed for recruitment can build an 'ideal candidate profile' using historic data from your business, but is that enough? Can the best creative talent be so easily defined? Using any candidate profile automatically creates bias, whether positive or negative, because it's then used to source candidates and identify those most likely to succeed in the role. Algorithms even exist that can recommend candidates based on interview attributes, like facial expressions, body language and word choice. If you're recruiting based on who's been successful with your company before, can those with different kinds of experience and viewpoints have a fair chance to shine? To find the best free-thinking talent, we may need an AI with emotional intelligence that can go against bias. AI mirrors our best and worst traits Is AI itself biased? Frida Polli, a former academic neuroscientist at Harvard and MIT, and CEO of Pymetrics talent matching platform, doesn't think so. She told Wired magazine, "AIs are learning from the origins of bias – the human brain." Stephanie Allcock, tech industry HR specialist, echoes the sentiment. "In theory, AI should reduce unconscious bias in recruitment, but it depends on how you program it. Their success is down to the data you feed it." The World Economic Forum warns, "Past hiring decisions are used to train the algorithm to evaluate who is most likely to be the 'right' applicant. Often this approach inherently replicates the same biases present before the arrival of AI recruiting tools." And it happens. Amazon was forced to scrap a secret AI recruiting tool that showed bias against women because it "taught itself" male candidates were preferable. Whether using machine or human judgment, without frameworks in place, it's easy to hire those who fit your workplace culture, leading to a team without diverse experience. A Wall Street Journal report said, "Employers often aim to hire people they think will be a good fit, but their efforts can easily veer into a [situation] where new hires all look, think and act alike." Unconscious bias and why it matters If questioned, most of us would say (and believe) we don't have prejudice. But unconscious bias is the assumptions we hold that we're unaware of. It may include preconceptions about people based on, for example, sex, race, disability or age that seep into our decision-making without our knowing. Solving unconscious bias is not as simple as alerting workers that they may have it. It can make the team defensive and unreceptive to coaching. Myra LalDin, CEO of diversity training start-up Vectre, told Workflow magazine, "From a neuroscience perspective, your brain automatically starts trying to defend itself, and you don't hear the content being presented." Using VR to reduce unconscious bias International professional services giant PwC predict VR and AR could boost the global economy by 1.5 trillion US dollars over the next 10 years, with one-fifth coming from its use in training. Traditionally used for job skills simulation like flight simulators, safety procedures and equipment operation, a recent PwC study shows impressive potential for using VR for soft skills training, like empathetic leadership and problem-solving. 'V-learners' (learners using a 3D virtual environment) found the simulations so realistic that they made decisions the same as they would in real life. 75 percent reported a 'wake-up call moment' that helped them identify times in their past when they had not been as inclusive as they'd thought. V-learners were up to 275 percent more confident to act on what they learned after training. This is significant because when it comes to soft skills, confidence is key to success. Confidence builds employee satisfaction, leads to better employee retention. It also helps to improve work quality and reduce mistakes. At scale, v-learning would likely be more cost-effective than classroom or e-learning. Most participants said they preferred it to traditional approaches too. The study goes so far as to call a 'blended approach' to learning "the future." It suggested VR is best for practicing what you learn in a safe environment, e-learning is great for academic activities such as learning how to use software, and classroom training is best for working collaboratively and discussing with peers. The path to AI with emotional intelligence AI and algorithms can be blamed for many things, such as unfair exam results or secretly ranking Tinder users based on their 'desirability' and ruining the chronological timeline of Instagram. It doesn't create unconscious bias but reinforces prejudices present in its source data. This is where skills training comes in. With immersive technology like VR, we can reduce unconscious bias in ourselves before we feed our recruitment choices into automated programs using AI. Automated recruitment technology is useful, but it shouldn't replace human judgment. Otherwise, the best talent may get missed because they don't have the right keywords in their application. Emotionally intelligent AI will help us find the best talent, not just the most obvious fit, just as soon as we can train ourselves to make more emotionally intelligent choices.
quantum computing talent

How business could leap the quantum computing skills gap

  • min read
    • Chiswick Health Centre is a large brutalist building in London, UK. Along its snaking concrete entrance ramp, masked people form a socially distanced line. Inside, the open-plan waiting room has neat rows of prefabricated cubicles, and a COVID-19 vaccination nurse is doing his rounds. New drugs and latest findings in the life sciences have never been more important. Innovative techniques to help develop and distribute vaccines have been delivered in double-quick time. And if there are the people to do it, quantum computing could make the process even faster. Where are the quantum computing skills gaps? Although the latest quantum hardware, pioneered by the likes of IBM and Google, has a way to go, in a decade or two, we could even see the 'holy grail:' a universal quantum computer. Ilyas Khan, Founder of enterprise quantum solutions developers Cambridge Quantum Computing, says, "There are two clear sectors in quantum computing. First, the hardware and second, the software and algorithm discovery. There are severe skill shortages in software and algorithm discovery. On the hardware side, the issue is less pressing, but the engineering problem that must be solved is, of course, very hard." Fast growth in the quantum computing market Tech industry insights firm ReportLinker forecasts the quantum market will grow from 472 million to 1.7 billion US dollars between 2021 and 2026. And governments are backing it by investing in education and training. In 2018 US Congress passed the National Quantum Initiative Act (NQIA,) investing more than 1.2 billion US dollars in quantum research and development. The European Union launched its quantum computing flagship around the same time, with an expected budget of 1 billion Euro. China, Australia, Singapore and others are starting their own quantum initiatives. But what's all this got to do with developing and distributing medicines? Drug discovery leading the quantum market The field of medicine and biosciences searching for promising new medicines is called drug discovery. Here, the value of quantum algorithms is already evident. A 2020 poll of life sciences organizations showed almost a third (31 percent) were starting to look at how they could use quantum computing. A further 39 percent said they have quantum computing "on their radar" for 2021. Khan of Cambridge Quantum Computing says things like drug discovery can take many years using the most powerful classical computers. Although quantum computing is still early stage, "it's close to starting to match classical timescales," making it worthy of investment. Pharmaceutical companies are keen to get ahead in quantum. This January, drug discovery firm Boehringer Ingelheim achieved a first in its industry, announcing it was joining forces with Google in quantum computing. In a statement, the company said it would "invest significantly" in the coming years to realize the full potential of the technology. Boehringer Ingelheim has already set up a dedicated quantum lab, hiring "outstanding experts in the field of quantum computing from academia, industry and quantum providers." Talent is key: The poll of life science organizations previously mentioned found 28 percent thought missing skills were a potential barrier to progress. Specialist skills needed for a challenging technology Vincent Yam, Co-founder of AI and quantum computing recruitment agency Tekna Search, explains how niche quantum computing skills are compared with regular software development. "Most people have a Ph.D. in something quantum-related and a physics background, either at undergraduate or Master's level. Even then, two say, superconductivity specialists may have very different skills." Khan says, "Quantum information theorists tend to have physics, maths and computer science backgrounds. A small but growing number have also done graduate or postgraduate quantum information theory." Anticipating quantum skills shortages, investment bank JP Morgan started an internship program for quantum talent in 2020 for Master's or Ph.D. students. Universities are stepping up their programs too. Renowned institutions like the UK's University College London (UCL) and Duke University in the US have launched a Master's degree in quantum technology. Khan thinks there's still not enough investment in education. "The range of quantum computing graduate and postgraduate degree courses must increase substantially." Practical internships can nurture the talent pipeline While true quantum computing is some way off, quantum developments are coming thick and fast. These will impact many businesses in the not-too-distant future. The skills are so specialized and sophisticated that governments are putting their weight behind developing the best talent, and even then, education is falling short. Yam of Tekna Search says he keeps seeing the same top 10 global institutions in his recruitment efforts. This shows how small the pool is and suggests businesses should focus on getting talent early from best-in-class quantum research universities. Tech giant IBM is working to secure the best people early with an initiative aimed at high school students. Quantum computing could help tackle society's biggest problems. Its computational power could hasten our way out of the next pandemic, but it will need the best minds. Companies must think today about who those minds should be, and how to hire and develop them.
future as business narrative

Business has long imagined strange and wonderful futures, and it’s not done yet

  • min read
    • "We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives," declared US celebrity psychic The Amazing Criswell, famous in the 1950s and 1960s for his wildly improbable predictions. In books, newspaper columns and TV appearances he informed the US that a craze for devouring human flesh would sweep the nation, the laws of gravity would cease functioning and the first humans on the Moon would be three pregnant female Soviet cosmonauts. In 1969 he also predicted television personalities would no longer be seen smoking, which doesn't seem so outrageous today. It's hard not to think about Criswell while contemplating what the future might hold after the disruptive events of 2020. Making predictions has always been risky, so why should we still do it? One reason might be because the future has become an important part of the business narrative over the past century. No matter what a company is selling, its best product is often a vision of the future. The customer's world would soon be one of ease and leisure, speed and convenience. The future gives meaning and direction to all those quarterly projections, strategy documents and planning sessions. The future is 14-lane highways and smoking robots A look back at how this message developed over the decades suggests we need it now more than ever. Take, for example, the General Motors 'Futurama' experience at 1939 New York World's Fair. 1939 General Motors Futurama ride at the New York World's Fair With the Great Depression finally over, the fair's opening pitch was 'dawn of a new day.' It was the first time the world of tomorrow had been used as the theme for an international exposition. General Motors offered its visitors a filmic 'ride' over a transport system for the year 1960. Laid out below them were fourteen-lane highways, self-driving cars and residential complexes with landing strips for private aircraft. It didn't matter that General Motors didn't make any of these things – the public flocked to Futurama, just as they packed Westinghouse's Hall of Electrical Living to marvel at Elektro, the Moto-Man: A walking, talking robot that smoked cigarettes. At the time, Westinghouse was best known for its toasters and radios, but these were now part of the promise of tomorrow. In fact, the company doubled down on this association, burying a time capsule at the fair's Flushing Meadows site, not to be unearthed until the year 6939, some five thousand years into the future. 'Cheap and reliable' can change the world One visitor to the 1939 World's Fair came away with a clear idea of where this was all heading. Vannevar Bush, head of the US Office of Scientific Research and Development during World War II, drew upon his impressions of the exposition when writing 'As we may think' in 1945. First published in The Atlantic, Bush's essay on the future of information technology would become a key text, influencing generations of engineers and designers. Recalling the typewriters and computing machines he'd seen back in 1939, Bush made an important discovery: The modern world, he declared, had "arrived at an age of cheap complex devices of great reliability; and something is bound to come of it." The prospect of sophisticated pieces of technology being both cheap and reliable would have far-reaching implications. They brought complex engineering into the home, connecting it directly with the world of tomorrow. Big science and big business came as part of the package. Popular Mechanics' December 1952 issue featured an article on playing safe with atomic rays alongside one on selecting your Christmas tree. The future can be both familiar and new The reliability of such devices had implications for new marketing concepts like brand management, increasing a product's perceived value with the customer's sense of reassurance. But reassurance can breed familiarity. The more a consumer takes a product for granted, the more its perceived value declines for them. The promise of tomorrow starts to wear thin. Or as future president Ronald Reagan put it in a 1950s sales pitch for General Electric, "Progress is our most important product. If you're sitting back at General Electric you're probably falling behind." The product should not appear too reliable or familiar. After all, who wants to buy a used future? "Suddenly it's 1960!" Chrysler proudly announced when marketing the '57 Plymouth as part of its 'forward look' campaign. Bringing out a new model car every year had become standard industry practice by then – marketing your latest design features as 'three years ahead of their time' was simply the next step. As chance would have it, 1960 was also the year Vance Packard's The Waste Makers was published – a book that introduced the term 'planned obsolescence.' Famous for his exposé on advertising techniques, The Hidden Persuaders, Packard argued companies were deliberately engineering products to limit their future usefulness, making it easier to replace them than repair them. Tomorrow became a malfunction waiting to happen: A point eloquently made with the opening of 1964 New York World's Fair. Built on the same Flushing Meadows site as the 1939 model, it was an update on the same message. General Motors opened another Futurama ride that "takes you into the future and makes you feel like you are there – in outer space, beneath the sea, in unbelievable places watching believable things happen." More ambitious than the 1939 version, if offered visitors a glimpse of what life would be like in the year 2024. 1964 General Motors Futurama ride New York World's Fair As the fair drew to a close, business insider Alvin Toffler published his essay 'The future as a way of life,' later expanded into the bestselling book Future Shock. Published in 1970, it argued society was psychologically incapable of responding effectively to rapid technological change. "I've always been careful never to predict anything that had not already happened," media guru Marshall McLuhan observed in a television interview that same year. "The future is not what it used to be. It is here." McLuhan spent most of the previous decade advising corporations how to survive in an age of rapid networked communications. Tomorrow gets darker In 1968 Stanley Kubrick's movie epic 2001: A Space Odyssey connected corporate America with the future by placing familiar brands in the 21st century. Those on display included IBM, Howard Johnson and Whirlpool. Some, however, had disappeared by the time 2001 came around. Pan American airlines, shown flying a shuttle service into low Earth orbit, folded in 1991. Kubrick's 2001 showed confidence about the future that had all but drained away by 1999. By then people were already asking where their jetpacks and videophones were – shouldn't the future be here by now? The paperless office of the future, first introduced in a 1975 Business week article, remained as far away as ever, despite assurances that "the use of paper in business […] should be declining by 1980." As an indication of how gloomy the business of the future had become by the mid-1980s, Apple Computers announced their Macintosh desktop in terms of a more dystopian world of tomorrow, promising viewers of their launch ad, "you'll see why 1984 won't be like "1984."" Apple Macintosh '1984' ad There was also the chance that on new year's eve 1999, every computer on the planet would cease functioning the second it recalibrated itself for the year 2000. The millennium (or Y2K) bug, as it was called, would cause planes to fall out of the sky and nuclear power plants to melt down. Thanks to engineers and programmers around the world working to ensure January 1 would indeed see the dawn of a new day, the new millennium began with few disruptions. The problem hadn't just been a technical one, however. Life in the year 2000 could never have matched its hype in advertising campaigns over the past fifty years. RCA, for example, marketed an advanced '2000' color TV "set of the future," appropriately priced at 2000 US dollars. In France there was a mania for adding the number 2000 to everything from beer to pet grooming salons to emphasize a connection with the bright promise of tomorrow. Death of the cultural and technological decade The one thing that truly stopped working from the start of the 21st century was our collective ability to map out technological and economic progress in decades. From the 1930s, this incremental ten-year unit became the steppingstone to the world of tomorrow. As each decade came into focus as the decade of the future, separating itself from what came before it, so too did the concept of associating them with a significant cultural, social or political change. To mention the 1960s, 70s or 80s was to call up a specific set of products and designs. It was what allowed Marshall McLuhan to advise business leaders that 'the future's future is the present,' a statement that could have applied to any decade in the latter half of the twentieth century. This perception became increasingly blurred once we entered the new millennium. In the twenty-first century it is no longer possible to identify progress through a decade's look, mood or direction. The only people to talk about 'the noughties' with any consistency were journalists, and even they didn't seem convinced. Upgrades as the new measure of time The old mode of reckoning didn't mesh with the new century. Cars today, for example, tend not to feature the year in which they were first rolled out as an added value. The upgrade has now become the new unit of measurement, whether it's an operating system, a platform or a device. Before the coronavirus pandemic, customers around the world had been known to queue all night outside Apple stores to buy the latest iteration of the iPhone. Apple has continued what the US car industry started in announcing a new model every year. Not surprisingly, the tech industry has also been accused of factoring new forms of planned obsolescence into their products. The contemporary term 'future-proofing' reflects a growing concern with anticipating the disadvantages brought by changes that have not yet been made. It's planned obsolescence 2.0 – the post-millennial version of Future Shock. Meanwhile, in a gesture that General Motors and Westinghouse would have appreciated back in 1939, Elon Musk fitted his own 'midnight cherry' Tesla Roadster to a Space-X rocket in 2018 and sent it on a rendezvous with Mars. It may be the first roadworthy vehicle in outer space, but it's still just a car. And that's the point about the future: It's a narrative that lets business communicate with its times. Has anyone received an Amazon delivery by drone since the idea was first announced in 2016? Narratives are useful for planning and communication, but we shouldn't let ourselves grow too comfortable with them. The future is a narrative meant to help us think more freely, not a foregone conclusion.
by Innovating leaders.
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