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Cybersecurity predictions 2024, a bright bridge leads to the darkness

Growing cyberthreats for business leaders to keep on top of in 2024

  • min read
    • Just as things seemed to be settling down post-pandemic, 2023 turned out to be a year of global political upheaval, conflict and climate catastrophe. Recession impacts and rising prices for business basics like electricity have seen closures rise and start-ups decline. Congratulations are in order if your organization still has its head above water. The last thing any business needs in 2024 is a highly damaging and costly cyberattack or data leak. IBM's 2023 Cost of a Data Breach report found, "The average cost of a data breach reached an all-time high in 2023 of 4.45 million US dollars," having increased over 15 percent in the past three years. Keeping track of how cyberthreats are changing and adjusting your cybersecurity strategy and resourcing accordingly will help businesses avoid the punishing cost of a breach. Here are some of the changing and new threats Kaspersky researchers think you should prepare for in 2024. AI-related threats AI and other interconnected technologies – think augmented reality (AR,) 6G, data spaces and more – made a huge splash for business in 2023, and we'll soon be releasing some exciting new research about the impact of their widespread adoption. On top of that, we think these changes will loom large for AI in 2024: 1.    AI tools will make scams more convincing Scammers use many techniques to get past our defenses. AI tools can now effortlessly create stunning images, even designing whole landing pages. Malicious actors will, of course, use these to craft more convincing materials for fraud, like fake marketing emails and login screens. Expect fraud-related cyberthreats to increase. What to do about it: Improve your employee cybersecurity awareness education to help them become more vigilant to potentially fraudulent content. Use robust antivirus software to block scam emails and warn about suspicious websites. 2.    Concerns about pre-trained AI models will rise As more organizations start using AI chatbots and large language models (LLMs) to help professionals with their work, privacy and security concerns around the data fueling these models will rise, especially in large businesses that deal with a lot of information. And for good reason – training common LLMs often relies on public datasets containing sensitive information, raising uncertainty about whether corporate data fed into these models will stay confidential or be used to train the model further. What to do about it: Businesses must adopt policies limiting how employees can use AI products and educate staff about these policies to reduce the risk of data leaks. They may also adopt Private Large Language Models (PLLMs) – these models are trained only with datasets owned by the organization using them. 3.    AI regulation will ramp up More countries and international organizations will join efforts to regulate AI in the coming year, especially African and Asian nations that are engaged in discussions but haven't yet begun regulating AI domestically. Those already involved will expand regulation, adopting more specific rules, for example, around creating training datasets and using personal data. With their experience developing and using AI, businesses can offer invaluable insight for discussions on AI regulation. Policymakers worldwide are actively seeking input from businesses, academia and the public on shaping AI governance. In 2023, the Bletchley Declaration promoted greater uniformity in AI regulation. But with rising geopolitical tensions, cooperation between countries may reduce, derailing efforts to keep it consistent. What to do about it: Ensure your business is staying ahead of developments in regulation and planning for how it will comply. Take opportunities to get involved in developing AI regulation. More 2024 AI security predictions from Kaspersky researchers Financial services threats 4.    Fraudsters will target direct payment systems Cybercriminals will exploit increasingly popular direct payment systems like Brazil's Pix, the US's FedNow and India's UPI for fraud. We'll also see more clipboard malware – malware that steals data users copy to their clipboard – designed to attack new direct payment systems. Mobile banking trojans will increasingly exploit these systems as a quick and efficient means of cashing out ill-gotten gains. What to do about it: Direct payment systems have enormous benefits for business but must be appropriately secured. Businesses can also educate customers to help reduce their likelihood of accidentally downloading clipboard malware or mobile banking trojans – often disguised as legitimate apps in trusted app stores. 5.    Mobile Automated Transfer Systems (ATS) will spread worldwide Mobile Automated Transfer System (ATS) attacks are fairly new and involve banking malware making fraudulent transactions when the user logs in to their banking app. Mobile ATS has only been seen in Brazilian malware types but could go global in 2024. What to do about it: Those who make banking apps must ensure their security is capable of defending against Mobile ATS. 6.    Brazilian banking trojans will also keep spreading Cybercrime originating from Brazil is well-known to be growing. As many Eastern European cybercriminals have shifted focus to ransomware, Brazilian banking trojans will fill the void left by desktop banking trojans. Trojan Grandoreiro has already targeted more than 900 banks in 40 countries. Grandoreiro attacks start with a malicious link in a phishing email, including fake shared documents, utility bills and tax forms. It then harvests data using keyloggers, screen-grabbers or overlays on online banking login pages. What to do about it: Despite the growing sophistication, cybersecurity awareness education still helps employees and customers avoid falling prey to phishing. Businesses must also make sure users feel comfortable reporting their suspicions. More financial services cybersecurity predictions for 2024 Advanced persistent threats 7.    Creative exploits of wearables and smart devices will grow In 2023, Kaspersky discovered Operation Triangulation – a stealthy new espionage campaign targeting Apple devices. Kaspersky's investigation found five vulnerabilities in Apple's operating systems that affect everything Apple – from smartphones to wearable devices to smart home gadgets like Apple TV and Apple Watch. In 2024, we'll see more advanced attacks on consumer devices and smart home technology, including other operating systems. Devices like smart home cameras and connected car systems are attractive for threat actors because of their surveillance potential and tendency to run on outdated software, which makes them easier to attack. What to do about it: Secure your business Internet of Things (IoT) devices and ensure that if they don't need to connect to the internet, they don't. 8.    Supply chain attacks-as-a-service: Bulk-buying access There is a growing trend of attacking businesses through their suppliers. Small and medium companies that may lack advanced protection become gateways for hackers to access the data and infrastructure of big players. 2022 and 2023 saw breaches through identity management company Okta, which serves over 18,000 customers worldwide. What to do about it: Supply chain attacks expert Eliza-May Austin has great advice on preventing supply chain attacks in this Tomorrow Unlocked video: 9.    More attacks on Managed File Transfer systems Managed File Transfer (MFT) systems that let businesses securely exchange sensitive information with partners have become a cornerstone of organizational efficiency. But housing confidential information like intellectual property, financial records and customer data puts them in the crosshairs of cyber adversaries. MFT systems' intricate architecture and integration into business networks also means potential security weaknesses. In 2023, MFT system incidents involving MOVEit and GoAnywhere confirmed this. What to do about it: Undertake comprehensive reviews of your MFT solutions to identify and reduce security weaknesses. Implement robust Data Loss Prevention (DLP) solutions, encrypt sensitive data and build a cybersecurity awareness culture among employees. More advanced persistent threat predictions for 2024 With attention to where threats will likely grow, the year ahead need not be daunting for business. From getting ahead of AI regulation to improved cybersecurity awareness education, organizations of all sizes can stay secure even as threats grow.
behind the screens

Zero-day: Birth of a new threat

  • min read
    • They're inside your system but no one knows how they got there – or how to stop them. These destructive attacks are called zero-day threats, because your security team will have zero days to prepare. Zero-day attacks involve cybercriminals using vulnerabilities no one knows about. They're hard to detect and can go on for years. Zero-day: Birth of a New Threat is Tomorrow Unlocked's latest film in the hacker:HUNTER Behind the Screens series. Michael Gregg, CEO of Managed Service Provider Catalyst Network Solutions, discusses these attacks and his clever way to trick cybercriminals into giving up their secrets. He also shares ways to spot these sometimes-subtle attacks. Understanding zero-day attacks While you may not have heard of zero-day attacks, some of the most well-known cyberattacks fall into this category, such as WannaCry and BlueKeep. But what does it mean? Software developers are always looking out for vulnerabilities hackers could use to gain access to systems through their software. When you receive software updates, these often include 'patches' for recently discovered security holes. "It's called zero-day because that's exactly how long you've had to prepare for it," says Gregg. Zero-day attacks might include reaching a vulnerable system using phishing – manipulative emails to users aiming to convince them to open a file or visit a malicious site. That action downloads the attacker's malware, which infiltrates user files. It can take time for developers to find the vulnerability that allowed the attack. In recent years, hackers have become faster at exploiting vulnerabilities soon after discovery. Zero-day attacks are especially dangerous because only attackers know about them. Once they have access through a zero-day vulnerability, criminals can attack immediately or wait for the best time. What is a Managed Service Provider (MSP?) Gregg's company, Catalyst Network Solutions, is a Kaspersky partner Managed Service Provider (MSP.) MSPs offer cybersecurity-as-a-service. Rather than or as well as an inhouse cybersecurity team, businesses hire MSPs to take care of their cybersecurity. Using MSPs makes it easier for businesses to have a range of cybersecurity expertise on-hand in a market where hiring cyber experts can be challenging. MSPs typically provide services to multiple companies and organizations, giving them broad-based knowledge of cyberthreats and cyber solutions. With the wide range of business tech that needs securing today – from light switches to security cameras to fridges – the value of wide-ranging experience is rising by the day. Tricking cybercriminals with their own tricks The data tricks cybercriminals into using, and so revealing, their zero-day methods. This has allowed Gregg's team to prevent and stop attacks faster. Preventing zero-day attacks As soon as a zero-day threat is understood, software developers will release updates to patch it, so your business should ensure it always installs updates promptly. If you can't stop a zero-day attack happening, there are ways to ensure it's caught early. Gregg advises "There's never a call that's not worth making," when it comes to cybersecurity. Signs of zero-day attacks can be subtle. "If your mouse is moving in a weird way, you're getting out-of-place keystrokes or your computer's running slowly," let the cyber professionals know – whether you have an internal team or a Managed Service Provider.
cybersecurity predictions

What a year of changing cyberthreats can tell business

  • min read
    • For business leaders, knowing what's changing in cybersecurity helps you recruit the right people with the right skills today for what you'll soon need. Kaspersky's 2022 Security Bulletin (free download) analyzes which attacks their global cloud service Kaspersky Security Network (KSN) has detected, blocked and disabled over the past year. There are some numbers your business will want to know about. 15 percent of users had a malware attack Kaspersky Security Network blocked malware-class attacks on some 15 percent of users in 2022, or around 1 in 7. This shows just how common malware is. The malware class of attacks covers familiar cybercrime tools like viruses, trojans and ransomware. The countries where Kaspersky's software blocked the most malware attacks in 2022 were Tunisia, Taiwan and Algeria. 506 million web-based attacks Web-based attacks result from users downloading files that then trigger a cyberattack. These might come from websites made by cybercriminals, infected online resources within user-created content (like online forums) or legitimate resources that cybercriminals have hacked. Cybersecurity education can be a powerful tool in preventing web-based attacks. Heathrow Airport has a novel staff cybersecurity education that carefully targets those needing it most with 10-minute online learning modules. 1.4 million cryptocurrency mining attempts Cryptocurrency mining is very much on the rise. Kaspersky Security Network detected around 1.4 million attempts to install mining software in the past year. Mining means digitally solving complex mathematical problems that verify cryptocurrency transactions, which also earns cryptocurrency. It slows devices and uses much electricity. In November 2022, Kaspersky announced they'd seen a 230 percent growth in cryptocurrency mining in the third quarter of 2022 compared with the same period in the year before. 102 million attempts to visit malicious URLs Malicious URLs are a common tool in 'phishing' attacks – when cybercriminals send emails inducing recipients to click on links, downloading malware. Endpoint security is vital in protecting against phishing, as is employee cyber-awareness. 377,000 attempts to steal money These attacks were often in the form of 'banking Trojans'. In early 2022 a particularly sophisticated money-stealing Trojan popped up that masquerades as a banking app and imitates phone conversations with bank employees. The app fooled many, highlighting the need to teach employees 'cyber hygiene' – like remembering to pause and think before downloading anything. Those who provide legitimate apps or financial services might also reflect on how they can show customers their products are trustworthy. These big numbers in cybersecurity over the past year show how threats to business are growing and changing. Cybercriminals always find new ways to get through consumers' and employees' defenses. By combining hiring the right people with robust cybersecurity education and strong security solutions, your business will greatly reduce its chances of a serious attack succeeding. Then, you can spend your time on what you do best.
cybersecurity new team sport

Why cybersecurity is the new team sport

  • min read
    • The pace of technological change is accelerating, and we readily adopt its many advantages. But despite this massive technological change, approaches to the threats it brings have changed little. The result is, we're losing the battle against constant attacks and breaches. For CEOs and Chief Information Security Officers (CISOs,) history may supply an answer – not in the form of technological genius, but in the form of humanity. Our recent history and deepest past show why cybersecurity must become the new team sport. The futuristic wild west of IT When I started working with computers in the early 1980s, they were controlled by men with beards in woolen tank tops. They ruled from a refrigerated IT throne – refrigerated because the IT team would often share the room with servers that need to be kept cool – knowing everything that went on in their realm. If something happened that was not allowed, it was fixed and hidden from the outside world with a combination of embarrassment and corporate secrecy. Today, we're in more of a futuristic wild west. The business perimeter contains many more applications, devices and entry points. Specialist 'gun slingers' – in the form of CISOs – have the IT administrator's security responsibilities. Each tries their best to cope with the onslaught of potential threats – anything from a nation-state attack to an employee accidentally sending data somewhere they shouldn't. Start-up mentality not all it's cracked up to be "Fail fast" and "move fast and break things" are often hailed as mantras of tech start-up success. But history also shows bad people have these same mentalities. They don't worry about due diligence or putting new ideas and technologies through rigorous testing. They try anything they think will work without considering if it will breach compliance. Meanwhile, budget, resources and red tape often tie CISO hands. They can feel held hostage by a board that doesn't understand the need for rapid reaction to combat the latest advance in 'dark tech.' We've seen this challenge before Up to now, I've described a futile, dystopian, 'Mad Max' world. But I think the battles CISOs fight today are our history, not of our future. Companies, and those in cybersecurity, often call their critical data and intellectual property the 'crown jewels,' referencing the ceremonial treasures acquired by English kings and queens. Those crown jewels are protected by thick walls, with guards and few entry points – like how IT administrators guarded our data back in the 80s. CISOs are inevitably 'outgunned,' under-resourced and underfunded in a battle against an agile and risk-indifferent enemy. So how do we 'fight the good fight' and win? Again, history has answers. Early 1900s business theorist Harrington Emerson is sometimes paraphrased, "Methods are many, principles are few. Methods may change, but principles never do." So let's go back to first principles. We're stronger together Humans first formed settlements as they started farming some 14,000 years ago. Having individuals in these settlements with different skillsets and abilities facilitated their growth. Some of us have an aptitude for the cerebral, like designing and inventing. Others are more physical, excelling in building and protecting. Settlements developed when we used complementary skills to advance a common goal, like making a safer, more prosperous place to live. Settlements collaborated – sometimes merging, sometimes building coalitions. And in times of crisis, while a few favored 'everyone for themselves,' most joined together for the greater good. Charles Darwin said, "It is the long history of humankind (and animal kind, too) that those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively prevailed." History has countless examples of international teamwork, from expeditions into unchartered territory to the allied nations of World War II, and more recent history. COVID-19: Each taking on a little During the recent COVID-19 pandemic, as individuals, we took precautions to keep ourselves and our families safe. But our actions of self-isolation, social distancing and complying with lockdowns knowingly served to protect society. Some countries legally enforced these measures. In others, it was a request. Regardless, most adhered, each playing their part by taking on a little of the responsibility to keep everyone safe. Eventually, the infection rate dropped and with much help from modern medical science, the world could open up. During the pandemic, countries teamed up, sharing information about infections – different strains, different consequences and symptoms. The data grew as individuals and teams combined findings, leading to the creation of vaccines to reduce the impact of the virus. It didn't stop there – sharing goes on, so vaccines can be tweaked to ensure continued efficacy. Extrapolating from this, the roadmap for cybersecurity should see the CISO as part of a team – not just within one organization, but within a global network, openly sharing intelligence and insight. On the other side of the planet, a CISO who has seen similar adds more context. As the chain passes from CISO to CISO, value increases. Quantity and depth of data grow, like crowdsourced security. This level of open collaboration may sound far-fetched, but intelligence agencies worldwide have shared information on threats similarly since September 11, 2001. This operating model may be closer than we think. CISOs already attend lunches or drinks where they swap 'war stories' under the Chatham House rule: You may use the information, but you may not disclose its source. Cybersecurity researchers in different companies and institutions worldwide combine their findings, writing shared reports. We already collaborate this way, instinctively reaching out for help, as we did in the days of early human settlements, but mostly we do it individually. Corporate legalities and organizational culture tend to restrict rather than encourage inter-company information exchange – it doesn't have to be that way. History shows collaboration naturally happens between groups with a common cause, and today is no different. By encouraging CISOs, staff and researchers to exchange knowledge and skills through a system for sharing threat information, we can nurture the communication of cooperation. We are better together, and together we can play the new team sport of cybersecurity.
cyber threats business 2022

Five business cyberthreats taking center stage in 2022

  • min read
    • Every year, businesses face a changing threat landscape. It pays for leaders to know what the experts think will come next. If you're upgrading your cybersecurity or looking for a new vendor, knowing what attacks are likely in 2022 will help you make the right choice. It turns out our predictions for 2021 were on the money. So what should you and your colleagues plan for this year? We're forecasting these four events that could have flow-on effects for other industries. 1.  Financial organizations will face more threats around cryptocurrency Cryptocurrency keeps growing, and people will keep investing in it for many reasons, including its anonymity, which also makes it attractive to cybercrime groups. In the scramble for cryptocurrency investment opportunities, cybercriminals will use social engineering campaigns, fabricating and selling rogue devices with backdoors to steal financial assets. More financial industry cyberthreats we'll see in 2022 2.  Fake medical documentation will trouble healthcare We saw the trade in faked medical documents like COVID-19 vaccination passports and test results in 2021. Fake vaccines were even spotted for sale on the dark web. As more countries roll out privileges alongside vaccination or test documentation, criminals will roll out more fakes. Medical-themed bait has long featured in cybercrime. With the pandemic triggering increased use of online medical services, patients watch for notifications about test results and messages from doctors. More healthcare cyberthreats likely in 2022 3.  Governments will conflict and compromise with big tech Governments are wary of big tech's growing power and data hoarding. As states build more digital infrastructure for delivering services and deeper insights into their population, they'll show more interest in what citizen data big business holds. We'll see more regulation, such as privacy and data localization laws, and regulation around how law enforcement can access data. Apple's new system that scans devices for child abuse images shows the challenges of balancing user privacy against stopping crime. More privacy predictions for 2022 4.  Industrial attacks will become more focused In many parts of the world, a rapidly snowballing trend is laser-focused attacks, particularly on Industrial Computer Systems (ICS.) We've seen increasing theft of authentication data using spyware, with each attack directed at only a handful of targets. We think these kinds of attacks will make up an even greater portion of the threat landscape in 2022, and we'll see the tactic used more widely. These attacks show why industrial shop floors must be protected. Industrial internet of things (IIoT) devices are easily overlooked and often vulnerable. More predictions for industrial cybercrime in 2022 5.  Ransomware attacks will get more targeted 2021 was a big year in ransomware, with a 30 percent growth in Ransomware 2.0, also known as double extortion. These attacks go beyond demanding a ransom to de-encrypt systems to using stolen sensitive data as leverage to pressure victims to pay up. In November 2021, the US FBI warned ransomware actors are "using significant financial events, such as mergers and acquisitions, to target and leverage victim companies for ransomware infections." At these times, any leaked information could have devastating consequences, making victims more inclined to pay ransoms. In 2022, this type of extortion will become more common. Regular, high-quality cybersecurity training for all staff is one of the best ways of avoiding falling victim to ransomware. Kaspersky is one of several organizations behind the No More Ransom initiative, providing free decryption tools and advice for ransomware victims. More on ransomware activity in 2021 As your strategic plans for 2022 take shape, improving cybersecurity will no doubt be among them. Your business must adapt as cybercriminals' ways and means change. These predictions will help you and your team be forewarned and forearmed.

Give your threat intelligence an intelligence test

  • min read
    • The saying "ask and you shall receive" seems to need a footnote or two these days. Make sure the furnishings you're ordering aren't meant for a doll's house. Remember that romantic poem, roses are red; spring onions are green? And quite who would be the happy recipient of this 'magical' Christmas mug, we'll never know. Threat intelligence can also be a case of 'wrong item delivered.' There are many products out there described as threat intelligence that aren't. And customers might not realize they're not getting what they asked for. So how do you give your threat intelligence an intelligence test? Threat intelligence is data analyzed Threat intelligence identifies and analyzes cyber threats aimed at your business. The keyword is 'analyze.' It means to sift through piles of data, spot real problems by looking at context and put in place a solution specific to the problem. It's most often confused with "threat data." Threat data is a list of possible threats, without analysis of context or tailored solutions. Threat intelligence should captivate your security team Once upon a time, there were IP and URL blacklists. Early security products would just refer to these blacklists to warn of a dangerous IP or URL. Over time, the amount of threat data grew exponentially. It became difficult to define what was a real threat and what wasn't. Security software wasn't designed to process so many indicators of compromise, like malicious file hash sums, domains or botnet server addresses. Some products marketed as threat intelligence include threat feeds and indicators of compromise, but without context – they're just vast amounts of raw data. This is a problem. Giving security operations such 'intelligence' will cause too many false security alerts. Alert fatigue has a serious impact on the overall security of your company. Research found 52 percent of security alerts are not investigated. And data, however relevant, is useless unless it has context and can be acted upon. With true threat intelligence, an InfoSec team can stop a breach early and protect a network, or realize they're just seeing everyday malware that doesn't pose a serious threat. Threat intelligence should tell your future Identifying yesterday's threat is history. Threat intelligence now focuses on the quality of data sources. It's not enough for data to bring insights but not give guidelines for decisions and actions. And when its quality is limited by lack of sources – such as not seeing into the darknet, or lack of global, multilingual reach – it can't be processed into effective threat intelligence. Intelligence must be able to predict how your business should prepare for and combat future threats. Threat intelligence should adapt to your organization A threat intelligence solution must be able to adapt to an organization's security needs. It must guide the organization to set up internal data collection points around critical assets. It then matches that data with external threat intelligence to identify threats. Without this targeted approach, it won't succeed in prioritizing information needed to defend key assets. As Helen Patton, Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) at Ohio State University said in a 2019 Forbes article, "Threats are only a threat in the context of the risk to the business itself." Threat intelligence can be acted on Threat intelligence is something you can act on. It must integrate multiple sources of information into an organization's security operations, through a single point of entry. To be effective, the organization must be able to use both machine-readable and human-readable threat intelligence. Its delivery methods and formats must allow it to be smoothly integrated into existing security workflows. It must give unique insights into emerging threats, so security teams can prioritize alerts, maximize resources and accelerate decision-making. Does your organization's threat intelligence pass? If not, it's time to get what you were promised. This article was published in April, 2020.
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Secure Futures magazine is your go-to business guide for opinions, trends and insight into the world of technology and cybersecurity. We help your business to bring on the future. Brought to you by Kaspersky, the global cybersecurity experts.

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